Why are MLB types so stupid? I really want an answer to this. Somebody has to have the ability to explain to me why teams shell out huge deals that look bad the very second they are signed! It's like 90% of the GM's out there are hiring hookers left, right and center and the agent's all have the photos!
The latest example of idiocy is the 96 million the rangers are planning on handing to 13 year vet Adrian Beltre over six years. In my book anything north of 15 million dollars per year is superstar money and Beltre is guaranteed (guaranteed!) to not be worth this contract or come anywhere close.
Let's look at his stats.
He's played 13 years, is 31 and the decline for hitters typically starts at 32...so signing him to a six year mega deal is perfect timing!
Ok...so 13 years in the bigs...
Number of years he's hit for a higher than .275 average? 3
Number of years he's hit more than 30 home runs? 1
Number of years with a better than .350 on base percentage? 3
Number of years with an OPS+ higher than 115? 2
(by the way...a .275 average is crappy, a .350 on base is a bit above average, an OPS+ of 115 is not great -superstars are above 140....i.e. I haven't chosen numbers (except for home runs) that are terribly high water marks of performance...and he still fails to get above them 90% of the time)
And here's the kicker...his best two years 2004 and 2010 (which account for 2 high average, 2 high on base, 2 OPS+ higher than 115 and the more than 30 home run year) were contract years! Gee amazing coincidence hunh?
In other words...the rangers have decided to pay a guy who 6/13 years has been sub-replacement (i.e OPS+ of 100 = a perfectly average player) and whose only two great years were contract years a shit load of money as he gets older and even less productive!
It's fantastic stuff. It's like saying "I bet the 31 year old guy has finally figured it out after signing a massive deal with Seattle and sucking for 5 years, being humbled and taking a one year deal with the Red Sox in a super friendly hitting park where, shock, he hit well" vs "this guy clearly only plays hard in contract years and doesn't give a crap once he's been paid (see, 5 years in Seattle)."
I am not saying I'd be super-GM, but nobody in the Rangers boardroom said "we are a small market team and signing this guy to a huge chunk of our payroll is stupid"?
Unreal